SNP can start its fight with upbeat attitude

AS ALEX Salmond enjoys historical quotes, The First Minister willrecognise the words of the founding father of the US Navy, the ScotJohn Paul Jones. Invited to surrender an impossible position, hedeclared: "I have not yet begun to fight."

With the referendum at least three years away, Mr Salmond has notyet begun to fight, but on both sides the tactics are being drawn upand the material is being stockpiled.

You can be very sure that by this morning the re-appointedcampaign team at SNP HQ will already be poring over the TNS-BMRBspreadsheets.

Why are women so undecided on the issue? How can a Yes campaignbring the better-off and the elderly on board? Can the Governmentpush through laws to give the vote in a referendum to 16-year-olds?

Above all, can it paint a realistic, credible picture of what anindependent Scotland would be like? OK, we can all order stuff onthe internet by clicking in the box between Saudi Arabia andSenegal, but can we be sure we'll be better off?

The embryonic No campaign has made a horrible start, with mixedmessages from the Tory and Liberal Democrat sides of the WestminsterCoalition and Labour wary of joining their bandwagon. But you can besure they will get their act together.

A way of forging these three main parties into a campaign willhave to be found and that may prove very uncomfortable, forcing botha new Scottish Labour leader and the UK leader Ed Miliband into thesame camp as David Cameron and George Osborne.

There is evidence in the ups and downs of the series of pollsthat independence becomes more popular the more the issue is to thefore. Support grew after the initial survey in 2007, fluctuated, andthen the No camp pulled away again as the likelihood of a referendumreceded.

But why women seem to be harder to convince is not clear. Theyhave often been cited in polls as less won over by Mr Salmond'sdefault aggression, but he and his team worked hard to tame that inthe election campaign. As a result women went from eight points lessinclined to the SNP than males a few weeks out (33:25), to muchcloser on the eve of poll (47:44).

A mere eight points adrift this far out from the referendum willnot bother Mr Salmond. He was 15 points adrift of Labour just a fewweeks before the election, and ended up 16 points ahead, an amazingswing in that space of time.

One feature of the TNS-BMRB poll is the way the results varygreatly, and sometimes unexpectedly, by region. For example the SNPdid spectacularly well in the north east and well in the Highlandsand Islands at the election, but 45% said they would vote No in thenorth east, compared to 38% in favour. In the Highlands and Islands,only 25% were in favour. 27% were against and 28% undecided.

The SNP hallmarks at the May 5 election were a confidence not topanic and a determination to remain up-beat. Optimism beatpessimism. It is by no means certain it will triumph in the next bigbattle, but the same SNP team is back in place and they have not yetbegun to fight.